Think about hiring a logistics provider, says government

The government is telling businesses that they should consider acquiring software and hiring a logistics provider to deal with imports and exports to the EU if there is a no-deal Brexit.

In its guidance, Trading with the EU if there’s no Brexit deal, HM Revenue & Customs says: “Businesses should now consider the impacts on them in a ‘no deal’ scenario, which would mean a requirement to apply the same customs and excise rules to goods traded with the EU that apply for goods traded outside of the EU, including the requirement to submit customs declarations.

“Businesses should consider whether it is appropriate for them to acquire software and/or engage a customs broker, freight forwarder or logistics provider to support them with these new requirements.”

The document makes it clear that the free circulation of goods between the UK and EU would cease on 29th March without a deal and businesses would have to apply the same rules to moving goods between the UK and EU and between the UK and non-EU countries.

And it sets out the process of importing and exporting to non-EU countries  as well as suggesting mitigations that business might consider, including customs warehousing, inward processing, temporary admission and authorised use.

On trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, the document says: “The Irish government have indicated they would need to discuss arrangements in the event of no deal with the European Commission and EU member states. We would recommend that, if you trade across the land border, you should consider whether you will need advice from the Irish government about preparations you need to make.”

* Chancellor Philip Hammond has warned that a no-deal Brexit would lower the UK’s gross domestic product by a total of 7.7 per cent over 15 years.

And, he said in a letter to the chair of the House of Commons Treasury Committee, government borrowing would be around £80 billion a year higher under a no deal/WTO scenario by 2033-34.

The figures are a provisional analysis made in January. This estimated that in a no deal/WTO scenario GDP would be 7.7 per cent lower (range 5.0 per cent-10.3 per cent) relative to a status quo baseline. “This represents the potential expected static state around 15 years out from the exit point. The analysis did not estimate the path the economy and different sectors might take under no deal and the potential for short-term disruption.”

The initial, January cross-Whitehall analysis is now undergoing a process of refinement in the run up to a parliamentary vote on the deal, said Hammond. “However, we expect the analysis to show that for scenarios in which we have higher barriers to trade with the EU there will be a more damaging effect on the economy and public finances. These are conclusions that many other credible external organisations have come to independently, including the IMF, the OECD, the LSE and NIESR.”