Strong start to the holiday shopping season

Positive economic signals are pointing towards a bright holiday season for US retailers. Consumers are entering the season slightly more confident and appear to be willing to spend. The Conference Board reported the consumer November confidence level increased to its highest level since July. Its Consumer Confidence Index climbed 15 points in November to 56.0. However, that is still well below the level of 90 that indicates an economy on solid footing.

Consumers demonstrated their willingness to spend as record sales were reported for Black Friday weekend and Cyber Monday. The National Retail Federation reported Black Friday weekend sales topped $52bn as well as a record number of shoppers; 226m people, compared to 212m last year, turned out at stores Friday through Sunday.

Cyber Monday sales were an estimated $1.25bn, an increase of 22% over last year. Cyber Monday’s increase was due to the number of buyers, +11% and the average spending per buyer, +9%. Overall, 10m people bought online for an average spend of $125 per transaction. FedEx, UPS and the US Postal Service should benefit from this increase in online sales. In particular, FedEx SmartPost and UPS SurePost should experience increases in service.

As the holiday retail season appears to have started strong, will there be a need for inventory replenishment? Based on US government statistics, there may indeed be a need for replenishment. Based on the latest statistics, inventory levels showed little change in September as sales increased. Although October inventory statistics are not available, retail sales for the month increased more than forecasted. However, reports from ports and airports have not noted significant increases in imports. The Port of Los Angeles reported October imports up only 5% whereas the Port of Long Beach reported a 21% decline in imports (see Ti Dashboard – US: West Coast Ports). The Los Angeles, Chicago and Miami airports also noted declines in cargo for the month of October (see Ti Dashboard – US: Airports).

As the holidays draw closer, airfreight forwarders should benefit as demand for chartered and/or expedited transport services increases as retailers replenish stock to meet the needs of customers. However, any meaningful inventory replenishment will likely occur after the holiday season and prior to the Chinese New Year in January or even later into the first quarter of 2012.

Quelle: eyefortransport
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