Asia Pacific airfreight suffers hard fall

The predictions of a weak or absent ‚peak season‘ in international freight appears to have been verified.

Recent IATA (International Air Transport Association) figures show lower traffic volumes for November as compared to the same period last year. IATA statistics are rarely overly optimistic; however the latest numbers published on December 30, describe a 3.8% decline in international traffic.

As measured in terms of ‚freight tonnes kilometres‘ (FTK) the Middle-East was buoyant at 4.7% growth as compared with November 2010, as was South America with a 3.3% increase. However it was the Asia Pacific market that led the fall, with a 7.2% decrease. IATA ascribes this to "falling demand for Asian manufactured goods from US and European consumers". Asia-Pacific demand fell faster than Europe’s freight traffic, with the latter dropping 4.6% year-on-year. Interestingly, IATA attributes the difference to stronger demand for European exports supported by the "export success of Northern European economies".

It is also worth noting that domestic traffic, which makes up around one-third of the market, grew by 1.9%; with the Middle-East, in particular, showing remarkable growth. North America was also not that depressed with domestic growth of 1.7% offsetting the international fall of 0.8% in November year-on-year.

Overall, combined international and domestic airfreight demand shrank by 3.1% as compared to November 2010. Utilisation has fallen by 6% as belly-cargo capacity is still plentiful, offsetting the reduction in freight capacity.

The year-to-date figures are more complex, with total volumes down 0.7%, but the situation between domestic traffic is reversed with domestic volumes having fallen by 2.2% whilst international traffic has fallen just 0.5%. This reflects a quite different picture earlier on in the year.

Whilst the direction of growth for the sector as a whole is not that promising, what is most interesting here is the change in the demand pattern. The fall in exports from Asia-Pacific has been remarkably steep and it is easy to ascribe this to lower consumer activity in developed markets. In contrast, European and possibly American export activity moving in the opposite direction is less hard hit. Whilst it is far too early for an answer it does raise the question; will this trend be sustained?

Quelle: eyefortransport
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