Huge orders will change air freight market

At face value it might seem that there is an explosion in demand for new aircraft. Certainly the Lion Air order is one of the largest for civilian aircraft, whilst the Middle- Eastern airlines‘ purchases are also very large. However, Boeing’s present order-book stands at 495 planes, less than 2010’s 625 and less than half of 2007’s 1,244 aircraft. That said, the combination of these orders on the airline sector will be noticeable.

Of course the orders are predicated on expectations about the growth of passenger demand rather than freight. None-the-less the impact of almost 400 aircraft on the market for freight in South-East Asia, for example would be substantial.

Randy Tinseth, head of marketing for Boeing, observed that demand for aircraft is moving beyond Europe and North America, with projections suggesting that 60% of demand for new aircraft capacity will come from emerging markets by 2030.

An expansion of capacity on such a scale is surely likely to increase the capability of air freight in regions such as the Middle East and South-East Asia. Air freight is essentially an opportunity cost and although the cost of fuel has suppressed the growth of the sector in the past several years- to the benefit of container shipping- an increase in passenger services will drive the ability of air freight to reach new markets.

Expansion of capacity combined with the air-hub facilities in the Gulf States is likely to change the calculation of the modal mix for reaching emerging markets. It is also likely to make it a buyers market.

Quelle: eyefortransport
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