Key air cargo routes display fragility

As compared to the same period last year, air freight volumes were down 0.4% representing a 5% fall on the peak demand seen in early 2010, although still 3% higher than pre-recession levels. Load factors have weakened by 1.8 percentage points to 45% reflecting the strength of new capacity that has hit the market over the past year or so. It is worth noting that ‚freight-tonne-kilometres‘ in Asia-Pacific have fallen by 3.9% year-on-year in July, with year-to-date volumes showing a 3.5% fall year-on-year. This contrasts with markets such as the Middle East which is up 8.4% for July and Latin America where it is up 7.4%.

IATA observes in its notes to the figures that in 2010 air freight lost market share of world trade to other modes, partly due to the composition of goods traded. However, this year underlying growth in world trade has been affected due to the disruptions caused to electronics and automobile supply chains by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, but also by signs of economic slowdown.

These figures are in tune with the tenor of much of the macro-economic data emerging recently. Various ‚Purchasing Managers Indexes‘ (see Ti Dashboard – Manufacturing PMI) in the US, UK, Germany and China are hovering around the 50 mark indicating a low or no growth in manufacturing. Figures from the Netherlands based ‚World Trade Monitor‘ show trade reversing its 2.6% increase in the first quarter with a 0.6% fall in the second, driven by a sharp 2.2% drop month-on-month in June.

The clear implications of these figures are that the core trade routes are fragile. It may be a shallow ‚growth recession‘ or something worse – only time will tell – but it does represent a distinct break from the previous growth seen in the market from late 2009.

Quelle: eyefortransport
Portal: www.logistik-express.com