Slower airfreight growth in August, says IATA

August airfreight demand is down from the 23% growth recorded in July. The August 2010 data is partially distorted by the comparison with August 2009, by which time markets were already expanding rapidly in a post-recession rebound. When adjusted for seasonality, cargo volumes fell by 0.8% compared to July.

"The bounce from re-stocking is over. We do not yet see the strong consumer confidence needed to sustain the expansion with spending," said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s director general & CEO.

Freight capacity is matching demand trends, which are stabilising. Since December 2009, the freight volume expansion of 9.2% has been matched by capacity expansion. After a rapid improvement throughout 2009, freight load factors have levelled off at 51%.

Global international cargo traffic in August was 3% above the pre-recession levels of early 2008. During the first quarter, airfreight grew at an annualised rate of 25%. The first two months of the third quarter recorded annualised growth of 12%. With the restocking phase of the inventory cycle now complete, growth rates are shifting back towards trend growth in world trade of around 6%. Freight markets are still growing but at a significantly slower pace.

The patterns of recovery are shifting. Freight volumes carried by Asian carriers have increased by 3.8% since January, while European and North American carriers have seen a 6% – 8% expansion over the same period. This shift is attributed to weaker currencies in the US and Europe supporting export growth and improving the competitiveness of US and European carriers, and the drop in import activity in Europe and the US dampening the demand for finished goods manufactured in Asia.

With a market share of 44%, Asian carriers are the largest participants in global cargo markets. Consequently, they are disproportionately affected by any trend – upward or downward.

International freight traffic market shares by region in terms of FTK are:

• Asia-Pacific: 44.4%
• Europe: 24%
• North America: 16.8%
• Middle East: 10.6%
• Latin America: 2.9%
• Africa: 1.3%

Slower growth is consistent with IATA’s recently revised global industry outlook, and the slower demand growth in the second half is expected to continue into 2011. But with capacity increasing faster than demand, yields are not expected to grow.

The August traffic report comes as aviation leaders gather in Montreal for the Triennial Assembly of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), where climate change tops the agenda. The air transport industry is united in calling on governments to agree on a global solution for managing aviation’s carbon emissions under the leadership of ICAO and in line with the industry’s ambitious targets.