Tension over Straits of Hormuz threatens Gulf hubs and oil price
The last few days have seen tensions between Iran and the West increase with sanctions imposed as a result of Iran’s nuclear programme starting to bite.
In response to the US and EU’s further plans to block Iranian oil exports, Iran has retaliated by threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz. This is the narrow passage between Iran and Oman linking the Gulf with the Indian Ocean. 20% of the world’s oil supplies pass through the Straits as well as container vessels using the UAE’s and other Gulf countries‘ ports.
Many analysts believe that Iran’s threats are baseless, and that closing the Straits would be economically and politically damaging, not only to relations with the West, but with its powerful neighbours Saudi Arabia and UAE. However, recent military activity in the area, a test of a new missile and warnings to the US Navy that its carriers should stay out of the Gulf, have ratcheted up tension.
The consequences of some sort of military action in the Straits of Hormuz would be severe. Dubai is the ninth largest port in the world and the region has in recent years developed as a major hub for shipping; supplying Indian, Central Asian and African destinations with Asian-originating products. International sea-air business would also be affected, not to mention end markets in the Gulf itself.
A long running dispute could undermine confidence in further development plans in the region. For example, late in 2011 work started on a New Doha Port in Qatar which on completion in 2030 would be able to handle in 6m TEUs.
Of more immediate concern to supply chains will be the impact of the war of words on global oil markets. The possibility of the closure of the Straits, which acts as a transit for 17m barrels of oil a day, has been a factor in the rising oil price over recent weeks, despite the weak economic environment. The last thing at the moment that the world’s fragile economy needs is a new confrontation in the Middle East.
Quelle: eyefortransport
Portal: www.logistik-express.com