Port of Koper: Study analyses the significance of a second rail track

New study underlines that a modern railway link is essential for Port of Koper and the Slovenian logistics sector
 
The most recent study conducted within the European INWAPO project by the Ljubljana-based Ljubljanski Inštitut za Finance in Ekonomijo d.o.o. – L.I.F.E. institute, confirmed that a modern railway link between Koper and the mainline at Divača is of national strategic significance as well as an investment essential for the further development of the Port of Koper and the Slovenian logistics sector in general.
 
The study conducted by Dr. Jože P. Damijan assessed the dynamics of future trade flows via the Port of Koper, as well as its impact on the national economy; it also provided three scenarios: the pessimistic, optimistic and realistic development of the transport corridors. According to the realistic scenario, cargo throughput at the port will grow, on average, by four percent annually, and would reach 30 million tonnes per year by 2030, while at the same time rail freight would double to 20 million tonnes. Most evident will be the rise in container freight, which is anticipated to account for 53 percent in the total cargo throughput by 2030.
 
According to the author of the study, the anticipated throughput dynamics will result in the congestion of the single-track of Koper – Divača branch line by 2018. In the event that this line is not doubled, all excess freight will be diverted onto either Slovene roads or Italian railways.
 
The study analyses three possible versions of the development of transport infrastructure linking Koper with its continental hinterland. Scenario A includes a new direct line linking Koper with Trieste; scenario B does not anticipate any investments in railway infrastructure, whereas scenario C anticipates the construction of a second track between Koper and the main line at Divača.
 
Based on simulations, scenario B would be least cost-efficient. Indeed, without the construction of a new track, any additional trade flows would necessarily be redirected on to the road network; the negative external impacts (air emissions, noise, accidents, traffic jams, degradation of roads etc.) are five-fold those of rail freight. Cost implications could be as much as EUR 1.3 billion.
 
According to scenario A, the eventual construction of a new Koper – Trieste line decreases the external social costs, but the redirection of flows via a foreign (Italian) rail network would be a poor solution for Slovenia from a long-term strategic perspective. Indeed, it would cause a loss in the range of EUR 166 to 538 million euros in potential revenue for Slovenian rail freight operators, a loss of potential revenue for the national railtrack provider (in the range of EUR 23 to 77 million) as well as the opportunity loss of new railway infrastructure (with a residual value in the amount of EUR 398 million).
 
If the second Koper – Divača track project fails to be realised, there is a real danger that cargo flows will be redirected from the Port of Koper to Trieste, which itself now benefits from the new high speed Pontebba line, an efficient modern railway link with the hinterland countries lying adjacent the Baltic – Adriatic corridor. Any such redirection would result in the loss of potential revenues generated by the seaport and its pertaining logistics industry, which would negatively impact the Slovene economy as a whole.