Asian air freight markets hit worst by downturn, says IATA
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced an upgrading of its industry profit expectations to $6.9bn (up from $4.0bn projected in June). However IATA commented that, despite the improvements, profitability at these levels is still exceptionally weak (1.2% net margin) considering the industry’s total revenues of $594bn.
In its release, IATA pointed out that air freight has stagnated since the start of the year, leading its analysts to slash its full-year volume growth projection from 5.5% to 1.4%. Airlines are expected to carry 46.4m tonnes of cargo in 2011 (down from the previous forecast of 48.2m). Air freight volumes reached their post-recession peak in May 2010, largely driven by re-stocking. July’s traffic was 4% lower than that level. The organisation said that it appears unlikely that a revival in air freight will begin before 2012.
Weaker freight markets will see freight revenue projections fall to $67bn (down $5bn compared to the June forecast). IATA also commented that due to an oversupply of belly cargo capacity no improvement in freight yields was expected in 2011 (down from its previous projection of 4.0% growth).
Asia Pacific carriers have experienced the worst downturn in profits; just $2.5bn in 2011 compared to 2010 when the region delivered $8bn profit. IATA said that the weakness of air cargo markets is disproportionately affecting airlines from this region owing to the larger share of cargo in airline revenues. The shocks from the Japanese earthquake and tsunami continue to affect supply chains and cargo markets (in which Asia Pacific carriers have the largest market share). A strong rebound is expected late in the year continuing into 2012.
In its first look at 2012, IATA is projecting profits to fall to $4.9bn on revenues of $632bn for a net margin of just 0.8%. It believes that cargo markets will grow at 4.2% (three times the 1.4% growth of 2011), but with no growth in yields.
"It looks like we are headed for another year in the doldrums. With business confidence declining, it is difficult to see any potential for significant profitable growth. Relatively stronger economic growth and some rebound in cargo will help Asia Pacific airlines to maintain their 2012 profits close to 2011 levels at $2.3bn. The rest of the industry will see declining profitability. And the worst hit is expected to be Europe where the economic crisis means the industry is only expected to return a combined profit of $300m. A long slow struggle lies ahead," said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
Quelle: eyefortransport
Portal: www.logistik-express.com